Predictive Intelligence vs. Intelligent Preparation

Right now, California is in the middle of a simulated massive earthquake called the “The Great California Shakeout.” The annual drill, conducted last year as well, is intended to help individuals, families, schools, emergency management, etc. prepare for what scientists say is inevitable—a massive California earthquake.

For years, scientists have attempted to predict when and where the next earthquake would strike but have had little success.  Before I moved to California I thought I would take a look at the existing fault lines and choose to live anywhere but on a fault line.  After looking at how many fault lines there were, I realized it’s impossible to avoid them.  And what about the fault lines that scientists don’t know about yet? The 1994 6.7 magnitude Northridge  earthquake apparently hit on a previously unknown fault line.   Surprise!

Even if scientists were lucky enough to predict “when”,  if they were off their predicted location by just one mile and a massive quake hit just offshore in the ocean, we’d be under an instant tsunami threat and the ability to swim would take priority over falling debris.  I wouldn’t know if I should duck and cover or if I should put on flippers, mask and snorkel.

I have no idea when and where the “big one” is going to strike and neither do scientists.  We all have limited resources and limited time. I do monitor real-time earthquake activity in the region so I know what “happened” in near-real time.  Here’s a picture of the current earthquake activity from the US Geological Survey. You can sign up for a free message service to receive alerts based on location and magnitude of your choosing.

I’m glad  “The Great California Shakeout” takes place every year.  It’s a good reminder and motivator to make intelligent preparations for possible catastrophic events.

Making intelligent preparations involves running through a variety of scenarios related to the event and ensuring you have a plan for each one.   Things like communications, food, water, medicine, etc. should be prepared in advance.   For example, my family knows already that the odds of cell phones working are practically zero in the aftermath of a major earthquake.  So they know upfront not to panic when their principle means of communication is dead.

We have limited resources and limited time.  There is a lot of work involved in being prepared for an emergency, and since you have to do it even if you knew where and when the “big one” was going to strike, you might as well spend your time and energy getting better prepared, or helping others get prepared, then spend your time trying to predict the future.

What are people thinking about?

Good guess, but the answer isn’t sex.

Gallup Poll did some research in 2007 to figure out what people around the world were thinking about. What was the number one thing they were seeking? All cultures, all countries, all languages, all religions were included in the study.

The surprising answer? Jobs!  I’m sure it is still applicable in 2009, maybe even more so.

“What the whole world wants is a good job.  That is one of the single biggest discoveries Gallup has ever made. “ [1]

So where are the jobs? In their report, “Global Migration Patterns and Job Creation,” Gallup says nearly $10 trillion in unexpected US revenue growth over the last 25 years can be attributed to only 1,000 people. Those people are star innovators and entrepreneurs and each one creates thousands of additional jobs. And they cite, more than half of the 1,000 were Americans who had migrated from other countries. [1] Not only did they create jobs, but the money earned from the jobs was spent on cars, houses, shoes, etc.

So how do you jumpstart your own job search, your business, your town, your city, or your state?  The object of the global game is who can attract the most innovators, entrepreneurs, superstars, and supermentors.  The environment has to be attractive for what Gallup calls “brain gain.” Ideas matter.  Ideas create value.

Gallup says we underestimate ideas. “Value is now created from piles of ideas and determination, not piles of materials and natural resources. The economists underestimated the massive force of innovation and entrepreneurship that led to a technology revolution.”[1]

“A country grows one city at a time. A city grows one organization at a time. An organization grows one star at a time. And all organizations are economic engines for all cities.”[1]

If innovators and entrepreneurs really are the drivers in the economy, which US States have the best chance to grow and which ones don’t?  Florida and Texas are in.  Maryland, California, and New York are out.  Look at the tax and incentive differentials.

NY’s expected tax revenues are down $1B.  Why?  NY State officials say they don’t know how much of the missing revenue is because any wealthy New Yorkers simply left.[2] “People aren’t wedded to a geographic place as they once were. It’s a different world,” said New York Lt. Gov. Richard Ravitch. He said last year’s surcharge on income taxes, set to last three years, won’t likely meet expectations.[2] But where did the New Yorkers go?  Florida—the land of no income tax.  Where are the Californian’s going? Many are headed to Texas.  Lower tax rates.

What does the global landscape look like compared to the US?  What about those 500 or more brains that came to the US from other countries? Would they still come today or are there more attractive options available elsewhere? Switzerland is worth watching after being named most competitive in the world. [3] Where are the top brains hanging out these days?

Should you follow the money? No.  Follow the brains.

1. “GallupWorldPollWhitePaperGlobalMigration.pdf.”
2. “Risky business: States tax the rich at their peril – Yahoo! News” http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090927/ap_on_re_us/us_taxing_the_rich
3. “Switzerland Named Most Competitive Economy, Topping U.S. – WSJ.com.” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125242350935892695.html.

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