How wise have the crowds been at predicting and mitigating the economic meltdown? Some have questioned whether or not this is yet another case of “Intelligence failure.” Crowds can be just plain dumb sometimes. (Think of sheep.)
In James Surowiecki’s book, “The Wisdom of Crowds…,” he argues that collectively small groups of people should exhibit more intelligence than a lone individual. But he presupposes that everyone in the group is actually thinking. Group think, where everyone tends to agree because of emotion or peer pressure, is a big problem and not only can erase the benefit of the group, but also can make it more difficult for the dissenter(s) to be heard because of increased peer pressure.
So how do you mitigate this problem? Several years ago I visited an exhibit at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. When Reagan was trying to make a difficult decision be brought in his top advisors and laid out the problem. He then asked his advisors to cast their opinions on what to do. But one detail, they had to share their opinion with the President privately. Nobody else saw it. After collecting all the opinions, which were cast individually and without peer pressure or group think, the President made his own decision.
It takes guts to stand on your own line, and sometimes you’ll get dumped on, but you just might save a life, or a fortune.
